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The Prospects of a Sinn Féin Government

(Niall Carson/PA Wire)

Irish politics has long been surrounded by the prospect of finding peace with the British. While having achieved peace for quite some time, there have been other motivations present within the realms of Irish politics. Since the 2020 election, there have been significant implications, whether that is founded in the newer pols or that in the results of the general election. 

Sinn Féin, which have traditionally been associated with the IRA, has surged in recent polls, receiving the most votes at the 2020 General Election receiving 24.5% in the overall votes and 37 seats in the Dáli Éireann (or the Lower House). So what are the recent polls, well conservative or “right of centre” tabloids, such as the Business Post and the Irish Daily Mail have polled Sinn Féin as low as 29% and as high as 34%, that being as recent as July? What are the implications here for Irish Politics?

Sinn Féin is characterised by being left-wing nationalists, this being the general consensus for some time, while also largely contributing to the Irish Reunification movement. The party has nearly doubled their voters from the 2016 General Election and as they came under new leadership have only flourished further. Since 1989, the party has only increased their share of the vote, with the 2020 General Election being their most electorally successful campaign yet. So what does this mean for the future of Ireland? 

Currently, in Ireland, the governing parties are made up of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and the Greens, which form a majority of 83. Can this coalition be sustained at the next General election? Probably not. This is not the first time the Greens have made the mistake of entering into a coalition with Fianna Fáil, after the 2011 General Election, the party had lost all of its seats and over 50,000 votes, due to entering the coalition. The party currently holds 12 seats in the lower house and is the third party in the coalition. 

It’s a poor political strategy to join forces with the seemingly opposing political parties, as we saw from such parties as New Zealand First, who joined forces with the New Zealand Labour Party to form a coalition in 2017 or the UK Liberal Democrats in 2010. So what implications does this have for Sinn Féin at the next General Election? 

Sinn Féin offers a radical change in areas such as Climate Change, the current housing crisis in Ireland, expanding access to healthcare resources and addressing childhood poverty. Is this attractive to Irish voters? Do Greens voters feel betrayed? Is the reunification of Ireland a bigger issue to voters than the current governing parties let off? Is Sinn Féin that alternative? 

These are the questions that will be answered at the next election, but until then will we see the further rise of Sinn Féin? Or will other alternative parties, such as the Labour Party or the Social Democrats increase their voter share at their expense?

By: J. Muir

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